Comments on: The true cost of innovation http://www.blahblahtech.com/2008/09/the-true-cost-of-innovation.html Tech' views that are 667% more interesting than the tech' news itself... Wed, 23 May 2012 09:08:53 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Wayne Smallman http://www.blahblahtech.com/2008/09/the-true-cost-of-innovation.html#comment-6379 Wayne Smallman Wed, 28 Apr 2010 13:18:08 +0000 http://www.blahblahtech.com/?p=834#comment-6379 It is a stupidly surreal situation, one that I simply want no party to anymore. It is a stupidly surreal situation, one that I simply want no party to anymore.

]]> By: JunkkMale http://www.blahblahtech.com/2008/09/the-true-cost-of-innovation.html#comment-6378 JunkkMale Wed, 28 Apr 2010 12:55:07 +0000 http://www.blahblahtech.com/?p=834#comment-6378 I feel your pain:) Not that it does either of us much good, mind. I feel your pain:)

Not that it does either of us much good, mind.

]]> By: telecom ervaringen http://www.blahblahtech.com/2008/09/the-true-cost-of-innovation.html#comment-4024 telecom ervaringen Sat, 04 Oct 2008 07:55:36 +0000 http://www.blahblahtech.com/?p=834#comment-4024 @ Heidi: Yeah it almost seems to be that way huh ;-) @ Heidi: Yeah it almost seems to be that way huh ;-)

]]> By: Heidi Cool http://www.blahblahtech.com/2008/09/the-true-cost-of-innovation.html#comment-4015 Heidi Cool Thu, 02 Oct 2008 16:55:23 +0000 http://www.blahblahtech.com/?p=834#comment-4015 So now all you have to do is throw together some fun little spreadsheets with random numbers! So now all you have to do is throw together some fun little spreadsheets with random numbers!

]]> By: Wayne Smallman http://www.blahblahtech.com/2008/09/the-true-cost-of-innovation.html#comment-4013 Wayne Smallman Thu, 02 Oct 2008 08:02:20 +0000 http://www.blahblahtech.com/?p=834#comment-4013 It's the contradiction that I find so ironic; so much weight and purpose is placed on the financial aspects, when all they really amount to is a reasonable best guess and little more. Yet the product that I have, despite the hundreds of hours I've put into it, is mostly ignored because of this insane insistence that the numbers see and tell all. I'm an ideas guy, which this blog is testimony to, and not a financier... It’s the contradiction that I find so ironic; so much weight and purpose is placed on the financial aspects, when all they really amount to is a reasonable best guess and little more.

Yet the product that I have, despite the hundreds of hours I’ve put into it, is mostly ignored because of this insane insistence that the numbers see and tell all.

I’m an ideas guy, which this blog is testimony to, and not a financier…

]]> By: Heidi Cool http://www.blahblahtech.com/2008/09/the-true-cost-of-innovation.html#comment-4012 Heidi Cool Thu, 02 Oct 2008 02:27:47 +0000 http://www.blahblahtech.com/?p=834#comment-4012 Wayne, A long time ago, before I became a Web designer, before I met you, I was a product marketer in the law publishing industry. When we came out with a new title one of my jobs, as part of planning the marketing campaign, was to predict potential sales and revenue, both to determine if the book might be profitable and to set a price point. My budget was usually too small to do much in the way of market research. (Print runs are much smaller for state and topic specific law books than for Stephen King novels) Thus I had to base my numbers on past buying patterns for related titles. I could usually get pretty close on topics like criminal law. I had years of sales figures for books like Ohio Criminal Justice, Ohio Arrest Search and Seizure, Kentucky Criminal Laws and Rules, and so forth. A new book on another criminal sub-topic would appeal to a similar customer base. Case law could give us a clue as to how often that topic came up in the courts. But when we branched into new territories, areas such as Health law for which I only had 1-2 existing titles things became much murkier. My market of health law attorneys (not necessarily malpractice attorneys) and health care administrators was a narrower niche than my market of criminal attorneys and law enforcement officers. The laws and rules could also be more narrow. Sure, there are tons of regulations, but they're geared to a very specific industry. I still recall trying to predict sales for a new book in this area. The editor and I went back and forth on the features and benefits trying to guage how it would be helpful and to whom it would be sufficiently useful. Then I had to figure out how many of those folks were in Ohio, how many I could reach by direct mail, how many would really need a copy (hospitals might buy 1 copy shared by many), and how many would just leave it to their lawyers to deal with. I tried to quantify it as much as I could, but some of it was still a shot in the dark. This was a book which we knew would reach a small audience so we knew the profit margin would be slim. While we could have spent money on focus groups or surveys to further target the market and gauge sales more carefully, such research would have eaten up too large a chunk of the profit potential to make it viable. So sometimes we have to guess. But if we're on the business side, we've got to make sure that it's the best guess we can come up with based on the data we have, and that if we're going to guess, we better be guessing on a good idea. If the idea, be it a book, software, pet rock, whatever has no merit, then neither will it have a market. Wayne,
A long time ago, before I became a Web designer, before I met you, I was a product marketer in the law publishing industry. When we came out with a new title one of my jobs, as part of planning the marketing campaign, was to predict potential sales and revenue, both to determine if the book might be profitable and to set a price point.

My budget was usually too small to do much in the way of market research. (Print runs are much smaller for state and topic specific law books than for Stephen King novels) Thus I had to base my numbers on past buying patterns for related titles. I could usually get pretty close on topics like criminal law. I had years of sales figures for books like Ohio Criminal Justice, Ohio Arrest Search and Seizure, Kentucky Criminal Laws and Rules, and so forth. A new book on another criminal sub-topic would appeal to a similar customer base. Case law could give us a clue as to how often that topic came up in the courts.

But when we branched into new territories, areas such as Health law for which I only had 1-2 existing titles things became much murkier. My market of health law attorneys (not necessarily malpractice attorneys) and health care administrators was a narrower niche than my market of criminal attorneys and law enforcement officers. The laws and rules could also be more narrow. Sure, there are tons of regulations, but they’re geared to a very specific industry. I still recall trying to predict sales for a new book in this area. The editor and I went back and forth on the features and benefits trying to guage how it would be helpful and to whom it would be sufficiently useful. Then I had to figure out how many of those folks were in Ohio, how many I could reach by direct mail, how many would really need a copy (hospitals might buy 1 copy shared by many), and how many would just leave it to their lawyers to deal with.

I tried to quantify it as much as I could, but some of it was still a shot in the dark. This was a book which we knew would reach a small audience so we knew the profit margin would be slim. While we could have spent money on focus groups or surveys to further target the market and gauge sales more carefully, such research would have eaten up too large a chunk of the profit potential to make it viable.

So sometimes we have to guess. But if we’re on the business side, we’ve got to make sure that it’s the best guess we can come up with based on the data we have, and that if we’re going to guess, we better be guessing on a good idea. If the idea, be it a book, software, pet rock, whatever has no merit, then neither will it have a market.

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